Nick Kyrgios vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon Betting Odds, Picks, Preview (July 2)

Nick Kyrgios vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Course

Kyrgios Course -140
Tsitsipas course +116
Over under 39.5
Time | How to watch Saturday, TBD | ESPN/ESPN+
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One of the matches of the tournament — at least on paper — is played on Saturday at Wimbledon.

World No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas will battle one of the most talented players the sport has to offer, Nick Kyrgios.

Where does the value lie in this blockbuster match? Let’s get down to it.

Kyrgios is an elite grass court player

The Aussie hit the headlines a few weeks ago when he claimed he’s “top 5 or top 10” in the world on grass, but he’s not wrong.

Kyrgios is 42-21 in his career on grass and is 11-3 on the surface this year. One of those losses was a withdrawal in Mallorca, so he’s really only lost to Andy Murray and Hubert Hurkacz on grass this year.

Kyrgios won against Tsitsipas himself and other solid players like Jiří Lehecka and Marton Fucsovics.

With one of the best first serves in the game and low groundstrokes, Kyrgios’ game is naturally suited to the surface. He tends to add more topspin to his forehand, which allows him to get closer to the net and stay comfortable.

Kyrgios has Elo A grass rating that’s only 100 points worse than his hard court number is usually a good sign that someone is solid on grass, if you needed another hint.

His first-round match with Paul Jubb was on a knife’s edge, but Kyrgios came through to throttle Filip Krajinovic in the second round.

In this match, he hit 25 aces, had only one double fault and did not face a single break point. Sheesh.

Tsitsipas is making big improvements on the surface

The Greek entered this season 2-4 on grass since 2019 but posted a nice 8-2 record this year with a title in Mallorca.

Although his Elo on grass is more than 230 points lower than on hard court and almost 400 points away from the number on clay, he has improved significantly this season. Tsitsipas shortened his strokes a touch and allowed himself to deal with the faster grass timing in a more tactical manner.

Wins over Benjamin Bonzi (2), Roberto Bautista Agut and Jordan Thompson are no joke on grass and he sends the best hold and break percent on grass of his career.

In Halle, where Kyrgios beat Tsitsipas, the Greek’s second serve was a problem. He only won 50% of his second serve points compared to Kyrgios’ 81%. That was the difference.

He will need to be a little more aggressive behind that serve and the first ball if he is to come through the service games with less pressure.

And with the way Kyrgios is serving, easing the pressure will be vital.

Bet value

Although Tsitsipas is much better on this surface, Kyrgios should be a bigger favorite than -140.

He is truly one of the best grass court players in the world and is in good form. We’re also still early in the tournament, so fitness shouldn’t be a big issue.

Kyrgios got past Tsitsipas in Halle, winning 3 of 10 break points, while Tsitsipas saved just 1 of 8, but that doesn’t reflect the difference in class on this surface.

At the ATP level, Kyrgios has a 96.5% grass hold rate this year – a remarkable number. That puts him ahead of serve-focused players like Maxime Cressy, Reilly Opelka and Matteo Berrettini.

The pressure he puts on his opponents is relentless, and when you consider the fact that his groundstrokes are up there with the best grass players, it’s a brutal matchup for Tsitsipas.

Not to mention that Kyrgios is 3-1 overall against Tsitsipas.

I don’t mean Tsitsipas can not will win this match, but Kyrgios will win it much more than the 58.3% implied win probability he is getting at this price.

Choice: Kyrgios ML (-140, bet at -160)

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